“So Who Really Would Win?”

“The war,” Picard whispered, “is going very badly for the Federation—far worse than is generally known. Starfleet Command believes that defeat is inevitable. Within six months we may have no choice but to surrender."

These chilling words were spoken in the classic Next Generation episode “Yesterday’s Enterprise,” when time-lost Captain Rachel Garrett of the Enterprise-C revealed that she had nearly decided to remain in the war-torn future she and her ship had entered.

Picard’s response, though, opened a whole can of gagh. Klingon fans everywhere shouted, “Qapla! See, we would win a war with the Federtation, if it came to that!”

Not so fast, there, turtle-heads.

It is possible, even likely, that in this “YE” universe, while only the Klingons are mentioned, it's actually an alliance attacking the UFP—perhaps the Klingons and Romulans, probably the Klingons and Cardassians (remember the Deep Space Nine Mirror Universe in which these two are allies)... or, possibly, all three. That would allow for such success as is mentioned in the story.

After all, remember... during that period in “our” Trek “reality,” the Cardassians were at war with the Federation. If the “Yesterday’s Enterprise” version of Starfleet had to commit significant resources to containing the Union while also fighting the Klingons (and if there were no major changes other than Nerendra III, then that’s exactly what was happening), it would far more reasonably account for Starfleet’s diminishing fortunes in "Yesterday's Enterprise." "YE" is a great episode, but... hardly conclusive or even particularly telling on the main Trek universe.

Klingon fans may protest, “What about all the problems the Feds encountered when briefly at war with the Klingons during Deep Space Nine? Surely that proves the Klingon Empire is militarily superior!”

Again, not so: The UFP tried simply to defend itself while bringing the Empire back into re-acknowledging the Khitomer Accords. Thus, the Klingons had an immense advantage, in that they could attack flagrantly, knowing that Starfleet wouldn't be nearly as relentless in its counterstrokes. The Federation would almost always prefer to talk than fight.

Far more weighty are the comments by Odo and Section 31’s Sloan in seventh-season Deep Space Nine, because they occur in the main universe, not some alternate reality: The latter mentions that after the war, the Federation will clearly be the dominant power in the Alpha Quadrant—this despite having had the war fought mostly in its space. Now Sloan's a guy who has access to all sorts of illicit and ill-gotten information; thus, he would know.

When, during the DS9 finale “What You Leave Behind,” the female Founder scoffs at Odo’s offer of peace, saying the Klingons and Romulans will want revenge, he tells her [and yes, I’m well aware that “he’s” not a he and “she’s” not a she] that neither empire is in any shape to wage war... and that besides, “the Federation wouldn't allow it.” You don't deter the Klingons, Romulans or both unless you can back your shit up with serious military force... and the Federation is notorious for its ethical stances.

Thus, my conclusions: If, in the main Trek universe, one of the “Big Three” (Klingons, Romulans or Cardassians) assailed the Federation alone, and the UFP was inclined to defend itself properly (as in launch counteroffensives and/or reduce their foe’s ability to produce arms/make war), the conflict would be short, brutal... and the attacker's military would be prostrate within six months to a year; two of them together would extend the conflict out to three or four years, but the results would be much the same.

All three together? Well, they could definitely win a long, bloody war... but they could lose one, too. That's why they've never tried.

On the other hand...

..."Yesterday's Enterprise" shows a future in which what might have happened is this: The Federation, already at war with the Cardassians and fighting a successful holding action, are then faced with the Klingons, who are attacking with everything they have.

Meanwhile, the ever-careful Romulans are rubbing their hands together with glee: Their main enemies are savaging each other. How to exploit this? They make noises about war, but never actually strike—thus forcing the Federation into committing resources and starships to maintain security along the Neutral Zone border.

Thus, the Klingons never have to face the full might of the Federation... and for the first few years, the Feds try that same "Let's just hold the line and bring them to the negotiating table" strategy that's served them so well in the past.

Not this time. The Klingons are hungry for war, and they see that the Federation is too vast, has too many commitments, to turn and really give them what for. So they crow about their honor and courage, while attacking a foe that can't truly fight back as effectively as it should.

And still, even in that universe, the war’s lasted 20 years.

In the main Star Trek universe, though, it’s obvious why the Klingons and Romulans never settled their differences and attacked the Federation.

They knew they’d get their asses whipped.